**Chance: A Guide to Gambling, Love, The Stock Market, and Just About Everything Else**

By Amir D. Aczel (1950-2015)

This is a book about probability, the “quantitative measure of the likelihood of a given event.” The author applies probability theory in numerous scenarios.

Assuming a World War II pilot had a 2% chance of being shot down on each mission, what are the chances of a pilot being shot down in 50 missions? Nope—it is not 50 x 0.02. Using the law of unions of independent events, the answer is 1 – 0.98^{50} = 64%. In another example, there are three overnight couriers with an on-time record of 90%, 88%, and 92% respectively. If someone sent an important document using all three services, what is the probability of at least one of them delivering on time? The answer is 1 – (0.10 x 0.12 x 0.08) = 99.904%.

“So what have we noticed here? Continue reading